Think Change
From global think tank ODI, in Think Change we discuss some of the world’s most pressing global issues with a variety of experts and commentators. Find out more at odi.org
Think Change
What trends will shape 2024? Part 1
2023 has been another year marked by major crises. This final episode reflects on where we are now, and the major global themes shaping 2024.
The world is at a pivotal moment as we try to cope with multiple, interconnected crises. The number of people fleeing war, persecution and violence is at an estimated 114 million, against a backdrop of rising geo-political tensions, carbon emissions, food and energy crises, and economic instability.
All this comes at a time when systems are overwhelmed, and international cooperation remains fragmented. But are there reasons for optimism?
Next year will be the biggest election year in history with more than half the world due to exercise their right to vote, putting the spotlight on the state of global democracy.
In this episode our guests share their unique perspective on the major themes and forces shaping 2024.
Speakers
- Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group
- Alexis Akwagyiram, Managing Editor, Semafor Africa
- Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, Director of Programme, Politics and Governance, ODI
00:00: Sara Pantuliano
Welcome to Think Change. I'm your host, Sara Pantuliano.
Well, 2023 has been yet another year marked by major crisis. At the start of the year, we released a podcast episode that spoke about an urgent need to shape a pathway to a more stable and resilient world.
Well, where are we now? The world is at a pivotal moment. We are trying to cope with multiple interconnected crises.
We see the number of people fleeing war, persecution and violence continue to rise, and that is happening against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, food and energy crisis, and of course, wider economic instability.
And all of this comes at a time where systems are overwhelmed, and we see international cooperation more and more fragmented.
So are there reasons for optimism amidst this very grim forecast. Next year will be the biggest election year in history.
75 countries will hold 83 national elections. That's more than half of the world due to exercise their right to vote, and that really puts a spotlight on the state of global democracy.
So with me today, I have 3 brilliant guests to discuss some of the major political themes and forces that will shape 2024.
I'm hoping that we’ll also help inject some optimism into our outlook. I'm really delighted to welcome Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group, a global political risk analysis firm.
Joining Ian is Alexis Akwagyiram. Alexis is the managing editor of Semafor Africa, and last but not least, our own Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, the director of our politics and governance program at ODI.
Ian, let me start with you. You gave a recent address in Tokyo on the state of the world and you spoke about the unprecedented, dangerous state of global politics and the urgent challenges ahead for 2024.
Can you share some of your key takeaways with our listeners?
02:11: Ian Bremmer
Well, the backdrop, is what I've been calling a G zero world, a world that does not have Global leadership where the United States is increasingly unwilling and unable to be the global policeman or the architect of global trade or even the promoter of global values, but no other country or group of countries are capable of stepping into America's shoes.
And and against that backdrop, we are seeing increasing levels of direct geopolitical tensions and all out war.
I mean, the Russia Ukraine war is one that continues to be fought, where there is no end in sight, and the principal agents involved in that war, do not have interests, in in trying to bring, the war to an end.
Same is true for, the war that has broken out, between Israel and and Hamas in Gaza and has the potential to expand significantly, but beyond that territory.
And and then finally, is the war that we see breaking out between the United States and the United States.
You mentioned, Sara, all of the elections, in the coming year, you know, many of which, frankly, are not likely to be to bring a lot of political instability, but that is clearly not true in the world's largest economy, most powerful country, most powerful military, and, and and, most powerful democracy.
But, singularly, a democracy that is increasingly seen as illegitimate and broken, and the 2024 election will paint that in very direct relief.
And so, I do think looking forward to the coming year, geopolitically, we're facing really significant tensions, that are unlikely to be resolved.
They don't really have guardrails. Rather, those tensions are likely to play out and get structurally worse over time. Thanks Ian.
Kathryn, you've been raising a number of, you know, similar points, in your work at ODI, and you've talked very clearly about how these tensions, these large fractures in political systems are impacting critical development issues.
What are some of the key issues that you think will shape 2024? Yes, I mean, I think before answering that question.
04:47: Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou
I just want to pause a little bit on the critical development issues because the way we even think about development, what is development has been dramatically challenged over the last year and perhaps earlier because as the last speaker said, clearly, the global, the external, challenges that shape how countries develop are really, really important.
So these geopolitical tensions, I'm particularly interested in the rush for so called critical minerals, which is shaping how we think of transition, how we can do transition, and how that is even going to compound some of the challenging issues that have thwarted, efforts at economic, political, and social development in many countries.
I think particularly of Africa, of countries like, the Democratic Republic of Congo.
And what we are seeing is an intensification of the struggles that are global around ownership and access to those resources, which compounding some structural problems to do with the nature of the state in that country and its legitimacy and ability to control, its political and economic future.
Thanks Kathryn and Alexis, you've spent many years reporting on economic trends and politics in Africa, it's diaspora as well.
How does what Kathryn has just said resonate with you? Are some of these, you know, tension, these drivers, in Africa sort of shaping 2024 even more strongly than they have 2023?
06:35: Alexis Akwagyiram
I mean, I absolutely do see these factors shaping 2024. We've already seen throughout this year a real push by a number of African countries to try and build green industrialisation in terms of The Just Energy transition, they've looked at what's happened in the past in terms of the experience of mineral extraction and the fact that Many African economies have benefited, and so we've seen in countries such as, Ghana, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, they're all moving towards policy frameworks, legislation, through which they want to get a bigger slice of the earnings when it comes to minerals being extracted. We also see contests between so called great powers, these more advanced economies, Because all of that is built around a desire to benefit, I mean, a number of countries, the US, in particular, can see China pulling away with in terms of production these, electric vehicle batteries and in terms of the access that China has to ingredients such as lithium, copper, for example, and so they're trying to catch up, and in doing so, it means that these Countries, the US, Russia, are playing catch up in Africa, so I think we'll definitely see that playing an even greater role in 2024.
Thanks, Alexis.
I mean, on the show we've spoken many times on how international cooperation is essential to move forward in terms of, mitigating some of the, the structures that you've all spoken about, but clearly the reformat structures is long overdue.
There's been many views on this show on how we can reset this structure, how we can help to Shape a stronger, more equitable global community.
Is there anything that you think we can realistically do in 2024 to start really moving the dial? Alexis, I'll start with you.
08:33: Alexis Akwagyiram
Well, I mean, I think one thing that could be done is, certainly from an African perspective, The opening up of opportunities for African leaders to have more of a say on the international stage will be crucial, that's definitely something that we saw in 2023, So, for example, in terms of the BRICS expansion, we saw, Egypt and Ethiopia, entering BRICS, they're going to be part of that, as well as that the African Union getting a seat at the G20.
All of these things are increasingly important.
We also saw more dialogue between African countries in terms of joined up thinking, so a clear example of that was the Nairobi declaration, whereby in September, African heads of state gathered in Kenya to come together to have a shared united policy framework to take to COP in terms of what African countries want in terms of the Just Energy transition.
So I think there needs to be more of that type of corporation and more joined up thinking.
Ian. What do you think?
09:35: Ian Bremmer
Oh, I agree with Alexis completely. I think we should ask ourselves, first of all, why it is that the institutions are inadequate? And then what can be done and what is being done to restructure them?
The reason they're inadequate is because the institutions that we have no longer reflect either the policy priorities of the world today, which have changed, or the balance of power, in the world today, which has changed.
And those two things change a lot faster than sticky institutions, that are built to last but are not built to adapt because the countries that are in charge like to stay in charge, and they don't like to share very much.
And they don't want to, to, to create institutions that have creative destruction inherent inside them. But we already see how that's changing.
So for example, we, we just saw the end, witnessed the end of the COP 28 summit, in, in Dubai, now I mean, climate change now has a host of global institutions dedicated to biodiversity and reduction of plastics, protection of oceans, deforestation, and, of course, issues like carbon trade and reduction of carbon in the atmosphere, all of that has been structured over the past few decades.
Slowly, not enough, not enough resources, not enough focus on the global south, not enough ability to redress to the people in the countries that are being hurt, but it still is happening.
Now the reason it's happening is in part because there is finally a global consensus that climate change is real, that it's you know, that the scientific community is measuring it accurately, so you can only manage things that you know how to effectively measure.
And, of course, young people are increasingly getting pissed off about it, and and they matter, and and they're a big part of the driver internationally.
And so even though you don't have a lot of coordination, it's competition, but it's competition towards an understandable and same goal, which is we all kind of know that we have to get post carbon in energy.
And we we all kind of know that we we have to we have to try to bend the curve downward in terms of how much, you know, actual climate change we're going to see.
Now there are lots of other places where we desperately need that kind of new institutional framework, and it's not happening fast enough or at all.
On global security, you're building new architecture in Asia, but what do you have in the Middle East? What do you have for Europe and Ukraine?
What do you have for Africa? And the answer is inadequate, and the answer is poorly resourced, and it's certainly not consolidated. What about artificial intelligence? Well, I mean, no one was even talking about it a year ago.
Everyone's talking about it now, but the technology is moving a lot faster the various governance efforts, and those governance efforts are themselves fragmented. There's one in Europe. There's one in the United States. There's one in China.
There's some other efforts by the Brits, by the Japanese, but on balance, it's the tech and the tech companies that are driving the outcomes, which means that you're rolling the dice before you have a shot on getting essential governance for things like AI that would reflect the interests of the people that don't have it, and and it would reflect the, you know, the the value structures of those that aren't being the the don't that that don't have the datasets that are testing and and driving these foundational models.
So it's a mixed message. It's not like nothing is happening, but it's not happening fast enough to avoid the geopolitics and the interim getting worse.
We are in this interregnum between an old geopolitical order that was largely fit for purpose for the balance of power and the policy demands and and a new one that we hope will be able to do that once again, but we're not quite there yet.
13:42: Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou
I'd like to bring perhaps the politics into this story as well because where we are on AI today, in terms of global governance is only a reflection of political resistance to building a a a collective global governance around it.
The mere fact that we've got some consensus in Europe or in America or in the other, geographies, that we just cited is because there has been a collective appetite that has emerged to allow that to happen, we're not yet there at a global level.
What I find really fascinating about what's been happening over the last year, particularly with respect to Africa is that Africa has made itself matter.
It is because Africa matters to global security that Africa has been able to secure a seat at the G20, it is because, Africa's potential nuisance possibility after the abstention, on the vote relative to the the Russian war in Ukraine, it's because of that that Africa has started to matter.
We've seen this play itself out also, in in the Middle East and the geopolitical reconfigurations that are being kind of consolidated as a result of that conflict.
So, yes, it is, we are in an interregnum, but one in which, I believe that because Africa, is going to matter, as we move forward politically, demographically, we're going to see a reconfiguration of global institutions to reflect that.
And and and and I'm hopeful, that some of the challenges, particularly around resource sovereignty we will be able to see how, some positive, some positive shifts emerge, in that in that sphere.
15:49: Sara Pantuliano
I think it's very interesting what you, you know, you're all saying. I mean, clearly there is a change in the balance of power globally that is reshaping, you know, how the different institutions have stopped working in reality.
But also the function of the institutions themselves, I think, reflects the institutions were set up for a world that was very different and it doesn't reflect, you know, how the world functions today.
And it's interesting, Ian, you mentioned climate where a lot of the push has come from the public being so seized with issues around climate and wanting to see change from, you know, politicians, from people who are responsible.
I strongly believe that we need to create and generate that same appetite when it comes to the push that we're seeing on rights, on general human rights, on the civic space, on democracy, which is increasingly under threat, where we actually see a very concerted, organized, well-funded attack that is restricting these freedoms.
And I think that has been a feature, you know, throughout 2023 and previous years, and on this show we've discussed a lot this year how we can bring progressive forces more together to create more of a movement like this happened on climate to really push, you know, sort of reshaping of different models of global governance that sort of bring in stronger civil society, philanthropic forces as well that can bring different dimensions that not just member states.
So it'd be interesting to hear what you think about it.
17:28: Ian Bremmer
I'm less hopeful on that, because, I mean, when you talk about climate change, again, the the the critical thing that makes me optimistic and confident is the fact that this crisis gets worse in a way that is recognised by everyone equally around the world every year.
We all see the impact of more extreme climate conditions. We all see the impact of far fewer species on the planet. It's affecting everyone, rich people, poor people, every continent.
It's it's hitting the poorest people, the worst, and those are the ones that haven't even had the ability to get their carbon on, to get their industrialisation going, but everyone gets it.
Where when we talk about democracy and rights, you know, fundamental populations around the world don't even agree with each other on what the nature of the challenges are.
In fact, the world's becoming more divided internally on these issues, much more backlash against establishment institutions, populations. And I'm not just talking about leaders.
I'm talking about anti-media, anti-science, anti-credentialised experts, and that's a very serious problem driven in part by inequality, driven and and the sense that globalization didn't benefit a lot of the people in the countries that were supposed to have social contracts In part by identity politics and changes in migration patterns and feeling and of of a of a sense of fear from the other, whoever that happens to be identified as, and in part by technology and the fact that people are increasingly being trained as they grow up, not By trusted civic institutions, the church, the school, your local clubs, the family, but instead by algorithm, and algorithms that are not interested in creating civic minded individuals, but rather are interested in creating consumers and creating products that drive more profit.
And so that that shift in how people relate to political information and to the institutions that provide that information has gotten significantly worse and more more, this more divided more divisive, than certainly when any of us on the panel here grew up.
And so for the foreseeable future, I see this as a challenge that's going to get worse.
19:58 Alexis Akwagyiram
I mean, I'd love to jump in there. I'd actually, I completely agree with that.
I mean, it's it's sad, but I do think it's going to get worse, I think so much of it is driven by technology, I mean, you look at the demise of Twitter, For example, I mean, before there was a space in which, you know, journalists, civil activists, various groups could come to and there was verification, now there isn't.
So, it's hard to discern what's fact and what is not. People question, what is axiomatic? What used to be axiomatic?
And now there's a plurality of voices and it becomes difficult and that's why it's led to the rise of populism that's why it's very conceivable that we could have a Trump presidency again next year, and that there's this a lack of trust.
Before you could trust certain voices, you could trust established media, now there is a lot of scepticism.
I think a lot of that is born out of people thinking that they were sold a lie, people that believed that with globalism, they didn't benefit.
You see this in the rust belt in the US, you certainly saw it in the UK with Brexit, and so there is a lot of scepticism to which people set themselves up as experts, we're seeing it in Africa.
I think the wave of coups and instability that we saw Across West Africa and parts of Central Africa, we're in part driven by this because people were railing against the idea that democracy is best, they were saying, well look, we're not benefiting from this, we don't see it, and actually there are colonial forces who are behind this, so France for example.
And then as well as that, another, it's sad to sound so cynical, but another key thing to bear in mind here is there isn't money involved, at least for the green energy transition.
The bottom line is there can be winners and losers, and countries are racing to try and be winners.
How can they benefit? How can they make sure that they are creating jobs? How are they creating money? Whereas with things like Governance and human rights, those ideas, those concepts are far more nebulous.
And as was alluded to just now, I mean, How do you even measure change and what's achieved, whereas at least with climate change, if there were wildfires Across Europe, year after year, and the planet is getting hotter and hotter, people feel it, and then also, emotionally, people want their children and their grandchildren to live in a better world than they lived in, whereas those terms with human rights and governance, it's just harder, much, much, much harder.
22:34: Sara Pantuliano
I mean, I agree with you on many counts, although, I mean, we do a lot of work on the on the rollback that we're seeing, the ferocious rollback on women's rights.
It's hard to believe that we can't see what's happening there, you know, and how much of what we had taken for granted in terms of the rights women had secured, are actually really under continuous and increasing threat.
22:56: Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou
I'll jump in as well. And I because I think this is documented. There are a number of organisations documenting very clearly how the rollback of rights has manifested itself.
I'm thinking of organisations like The Othering and Belonging Institute, that wonderful Li Long name, whose purpose it is to collect data on this kind of thing with the view of trying to propose something alternative.
And, actually, that's the point I wanted to make because whilst the scenario that has been described is extremely bleak, and the, the role of technology in reinforcing these trends is something, really to be considered very, very seriously.
I do think understanding how this is functioning gives us the tools to try and start to do something about it. So we know, ODI has done research on this, that the, the anti-progressive, anti-women's rights movements are seriously funded.
They're funding in the States. We've collected data on just how much money is going into Funding these organisations with a purpose to promote a certain, way of being and seeing.
We have argued that foundations, those with, with more flexibility in terms of how their money is spent, need to take this really seriously and think of an agenda which is about funding progressive movements for change whilst, of course, you know, what what does progressive mean is going to be contested.
Some of these concepts are nebulous.
Some of them are not, actually, and are, rights enshrined in laws. Right? But I do think it's possible to use understanding to try and see how you can create a political, with a small p, momentum for changing things.
There are certain points in history, when this has happened, when, world leaders or leaders aspiring leaders got around the table and decided, you know, There was going to be a bill of rights, or there was going to be, a declaration of human rights, and that was the foundations on which we were going to create our societies.
We are in a critical moment now where if we don't act speedily, intentionally, you know, climate change will mean that there is no planet to speak of.
So these are the moments, I think, as as depressing as they may seem, that create the foundations, perhaps, considering something very dramatically different.
25:48: Ian Bremmer
I think that's what we're in the business of trying to do. I mean, that's to be a little more hopeful, than where this conversation is now going.
You know, I I would I'd first of all say that, You know, on climate change, you know, we it it took a long time in part because you had a whole bunch of very powerful people with vested interests, that were highly incented and motivated to to obscure the reality, and and that and they were effective at doing that for decades, Stopping the world from investing in the technological solutions that were required, that has now been largely addressed.
And, you know, you see that they're still willing to try to slow down the agenda, but the horse has left the barn.
It's too late, to move definitively beyond carbon, and that excites young people around the planet, we are we now can see through to a future where we may hit 2, we may hit 2.
5 degrees of warming, but we will have, in the next generation, a world of decentralized, inexpensive, and abundant post carbon sustainable energy, and that's a great planet to bequeath to our kids even though there's going to be a hell of a lot of pain as a consequence of us taking too long to get there.
Now on new technologies and artificial intelligence, I know that we're rolling the dice, and I know that technology companies also have very strong vested interests in not making changes that are important for societies.
But the interesting thing about AI is that we will roll this out in every sector for productivity and efficiency because it makes everyone, even vested interests in old school companies, more efficient, and that will get us technological gains and new globalisation and wealth that can be used to advance the planet.
So, I mean, you know, you can be, a CEO of a of a traditional airline, and you're spewing carbon into the atmosphere.
But if AI is now provably showing that with measurements of of, micro measurements real time of weather and wind patterns, you can reduce your contrails by 35%. You're going to use that tomorrow.
You're going to use it as soon as it's available to improve efficiency, and that will be done for most every company in most every sector in most every country, and it'll also be done by individuals, individuals that have access to these tools, whether they're in sub-Saharan Africa or whether they're sitting in New York City.
So I do think that this is going to move faster, and and that's going to be dangerous with disruptions, but it's also going to be promising in a way that we couldn't get to the new technologies we needed for climate change for decades, that that makes me more hopeful.
28:53 Sara Pantuliano
Thanks for moving the conversation to a more positive, sort of foot, Ian, and that's what I want to ask Alexis and Kathryn as well.
Let's try and give listeners bit of a more positive outlook on next year. Where do you think some of the more positive trends, we can expect for 2024 will come from?
29:14 Alexis Akwagyiram
I mean, I can jump in with that. I mean, I think, one thing that's occurred to me in terms of positive trends is just the growing soft power of Africa.
Now, we've mentioned that Africa matters increasingly, and that makes sense from a geopolitical perspective, because in a world, a multi-polar world, in a multi-polar world, then it makes sense that Africa will matter because there are more voices and it's not just about what the US says, for example.
However, in terms of soft power, I think in the last few years we have seen the growth of Afrobeats, we've seen the growth of African filmmaking, for example, the arts.
Now, this does matter, I mean it's not just fun that Burna Boy is a massive artist, Rema, Tems, it also changes people's perceptions of what it is to be African.
I remember when I was a child, it was never cool to be African, absolutely not, and yet now people perceive Africans differently.
And then also just financially, there are whole industries, financial institutes built around this because you need the infrastructure, you do need the lawyers that underpin these transactions, you need the accountants, and I think all of these things are good because it just changes people's perceptions, not just of, Africa as a continent, but then the idea that there are 54 different countries within Africa, and then the Global South more generally, just the way in which we view emerging economies is changing, and I think that's something we'll see more of in the coming year, and I think that's a great thing, that's a great product to this this increasingly splintered world in which we live.
Kathryn, thanks Alexis Akwagyiram.
30:55 Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou
I too am very hopeful when it comes to thinking about Africa. I'm an African advocate. And I would say that, whilst there are clearly challenges in terms of political orders.
So we've seen, particularly in Sahel, the the the number of coups that have taken place as people's dissatisfaction with what democracy hasn't delivered has, manifested itself, but I've also been part of some really interesting innovations, conversations about what kind of democracy Africans have and want to see that are taking place all over the continent.
And what's what gives me hope is that there is a, a, a serious, groundswell of, enthusiasm for a kind of reclaiming of African innovations in terms of democratic values, so where accountability, things like reciprocity on obligation, what it means to be a citizen are being debated.
I'm part of those conversations all over the continent. And so, my vision for Africa, not just as the space in which there is intellectual production and, artistic production. My vision, for Africa is also a place in which we can also learn from the innovations that are being, that are taking place and, that are reclaiming, the, the, the, the, the sense of being an agent, and having agency over the kind of future that the continent wants to build.
I still would say, however, on the on the AI side and on the tech side, we need to be very clear eyed about what the last decade has shown us in terms of who has access to digital technology, how questions of digital inclusion are not yet resolved.
So if Africa is to really take full advantage of the possibilities that AI could potentially offer, we need to get some of those knots and bolts, hardcore questions right.
33:07: Sara Pantuliano
Thank you very much, Alexis, Ian and Kathryn, I'm afraid that's all we have time for today, but thanks for joining me on this last episode of Think Change for 2023. It's very clear that we are at a critical juncture.
As Ian mentioned, we are in an interregnum in the geopolitical author, And while that is unsettling because of the lack of positive leadership, because of the lack of functioning institutions, What we heard today is also there are promising elements that are emerging, starting with the growing role and influence of Africa, with the collective commitment to tackling the climate crisis, and, you know, the promise of technology if harnessed positively, and that's for all of us to help shape.
So thank you to our listeners. If you've enjoyed the episode, please do like, subscribe and rate it.
It does help us a lot. We hope you'll join us again in the new year Where we'll follow this episode with 1 focus on the economic outlook for the new year. In the meantime, wishing you all a joyous and peaceful 2024.
